What’s everyone wearing to watch the stock market plummet?
According to J.P. Morgan Research, Trump’s aggressive tariff policy has raised the probability of a recession occurring in 2025 to 60%. Investors, however, are not the only group bracing for an economic slowdown at the hands of inconsistent and unpredictable economic policy.
The fashion and beauty industry has long had to bear the weight of economic hardship on the everyday consumer.
Nearly a century ago, economist George Taylor created the Hemline Index, a theory that established a correlation between the length of a typical skirt and the state of the economy. Shorter hemlines indicated a thriving economy, like the scandalous, above-knee flapper fashion of the Roaring 20s. Longer hemlines indicated economic downturn. During the Great Depression that followed the era of the New Woman, typical hemlines returned below the knee. The theory was tested for the decades that followed. A flourishing economy brought us the miniskirt in the 1960s, and economic hardship revived the maxiskirt in the 90s.
So, on the brink of a recession, I predict that the microshorts you purchased in the last year, influenced by a steadily growing GDP, may soon be on their way out to make way for more conservative alternatives.
But that is not all. The economy impacts fashion from our heads to our hemlines; popular hairstyles can often indicate the health of our economy. During the stock market crash of 2008, tight budgets led to “recession hair,” a term that encapsulated missed cuts leading to long, untamed styles, a return to natural colors, an embrace of going gray, and at-home box-dying jobs. In 2025, Bloomberg has already reported that stylists “are seeing regular clients start to skip cuts and blowouts,” hinting that we may be heading toward “recession hair” once again.
Those who still make it to the salon have reportedly been opting for lower-maintenance coloring, which TikTok has dubbed “recession blonde.”
According to Vogue, the term “refers to the darker, more brown-tinted hue that many are letting grow in with their normally bright, golden strands.” High-maintenance, bright blonding services that give way to toned, platinum blondes tend to be more expensive compared to darker, lower-maintenance color treatments like partial highlights. The trend to embrace natural roots is a big indication that the economy has already begun to affect people’s ability to splurge on these expensive services.
Beyond blonde, clients may be opting for shorter styles to change up their look.
While there is an ongoing debate about whether long or short hair is less maintenance, the dominance of short styles is undeniable with the return of the pixie cut and French bob.
While we cannot be sure whether we will enter a recession in 2025, your hairstylist or local fashion guru may have just as much insight as your financial advisor.